Peterborough opposition analysis —
So far this season Posh have used 3421 & at times in games against harder to break down opposition a 4231.
Using @experimental361’s xG table Posh fall down the table, scoring more goals than expected but this is mostly due to their clinical nature in front of goal.
Both of Posh’s last 2 games have been close encounters on xG. VS MK Dons, Posh were perhaps ‘fortunate’ to win by 3 goals & vs Charlton they lost on xG however taking away Charlton’s early penalty they had the better share of the game.
Stat Comparisons
Posh are struggling in many of the same areas as us going forwards, they don’t have enough touches in the box/enough play in final 3rd but the difference between us is they execute these positions a lot better than us ranking on avg. at 4.6 for goals, shots & xG
Defensively Posh rank okay overall & similar to us in many areas. Looking at Posh’s PPDA & Challenge Intensity we can gather that they don’t press very much, happy to allow the opposition to have the ball in build up.
In Possession -
In the first phase of build up when the ball is with the GK, Posh prefer to play out from the back but are happy to also go long into Clarke-Harris who is excellent in the air & holding up play.
When Posh go short they will almost always look to play into Frankie Kent, the RCB. He is the most comfortable on the ball of the back 3 as he is able to play balls in between lines, break lines with dribbling ability & play accurate direct balls into JCH.
Playing into Kent, who takes up wide positions, allows the RWB to get further forwards which leads me onto Posh’s positioning in when building from a GK & in later phases of play.
In later phases of play they will revert from a 3421 to a 4231 which shapes up as shown below:
This happens more on the Posh right hand side than the left due to the difference in quality on the ball between Kent & Beevers as well as Kent being able to defend in wide areas much better than Beevers should the ball be turned over by the opposition.
JCH & Szmodics can then play closer together allowing them to link up together really well as a little man-big man combo of sorts. Dembele will float around on the left depending on the location of the ball, he is able to drop btl when ball is central as well as run channels
The front 3 interchange frequently although not as often as last season due to JCH not being as comfortable in wider positions as Toney was. JCH will often drop deep creating that space for Szmodics & Dembele to operate in, they will also swap wings often as well.
When Posh go long they will aim to play into JCH rather than balls into the channels due to his good ability at holding up play. He will then play to one of the central players with at least 1 of Szmodics/Dembele making a run in behind.
The LWB Butler will get high up the pitch in possession but will only fully commit going forwards once Posh are in the final 3rd. This is due to the lack of pace of Beevers behind him meaning that if the ball is turned over in early stages of possession he isn’t isolated.
Butler doesn’t tend to get to the byline as much as the RWB, instead looking to cross from deeper positions when in the final 3rd. He has fantastic crossing ability & will need to be closed down quickly. On the left Dembele is the player that will get to the byline more.
This is an extremely useful tool for Posh as combined with Butler’s excellent delivery, JCH is great in the box both aerially & on the floor. His movement is good as well as his finishing, scoring 13 from an xG of 11.59 which both rank highest in L1.
When the ball is being played in between the CB’s centrally Posh have a different structure.
In this instance both WB’s get forwards to stretch the opposition horizontally in order to create spaces in between the lines. Both Dembele & Szmodics look to drop & take on half turn.
The CM’s will play close to each other & narrow to open up even more space for the ball into Szmodics & Dembele as well as creating a triangle with the CCB who occasionally steps out into midfield.
As well as dropping deep Szmodics & Dembele will stay close to JCH if Posh go long
In the final 3rd Posh will have different shapes depending on ball side, on the left they lineup as below:
Hamilton comes across & sits behind Butler to cover for his attacking positioning as well as offering a passing option behind so Beevers doesn’t have to come forwards.
On the right Posh lineup as below:
Instead of covering behind like Hamilton, Taylor gets further forwards as Kent is covering behind. This allows Szmodics to get in the box for the resulting cross from the RWB.
Out of possession -
As previously mentioned, looking at the relevant stats Posh are quite passive when pressing, preferring to sit off. From watching their games I would say they are more active off the ball than the stats suggest which could show a poor execution.
VS MK Dons Posh pressed the MK back 3 with a front 3. Dembele & Szmodics pressed the outside CB’s while JCH would press occasionally but was mainly tasked with covering passes into the DM. Hamilton & Taylor would mark the 2 CM’s, Thompson would sometimes step out if needed
VS Charlton, Posh pressed in a 3 when central to stop progression into the FB’s. When on the wings they would have 2 close down the ball side CB & FB & then the other would come into midfield to give Posh the numerical advantage there.
VS our 4231 I imagine that if Posh sit off us they will setup as below:
The 2 wide players will position in between the DM & FB so if passed to they are quick to the scene to put under pressure. This then means the 2 Posh CM’s can mark Bishop.
One route for us here is to have higher positioning of our FB’s. They can then be used as an out ball due to being unmarked & makes Szmodics/Dembele come wider freeing up space for Dozzell & Downes. The movement of the FB’s then allows our wingers to come infield.
If one of Posh’s CMs come out to mark either wingers this then frees up Bishop, if a CB steps out to press this creates space in behind for the striker.
VS a 4231 I expect Posh to push their WB’s forwards in the press. Kent is good at defending wide areas so engaging their RWB in the press might not reap many benefits but Beeevers struggles in wide areas so beating the first line of Posh’s press & engaging Butler exposes Beevers
One way in particular to engage Butler is switches from our left wing to our right wing as Dembele will be positioned in field therefore Butler is the only one defending that area at the moment so has to press. This leads me onto Posh’s positioning when the ball is in wide areas.
Posh will have up a similar structure to the Charlton game when the ball is in wide areas, the 2 nearest forward players for Posh press the ball side FB & CB. As we are playing with a 1 upfront compared to the Charlton 2 upfront Posh will be more aggressive at the back.
As we are playing with a 1 upfront compared to the Charlton 2 upfront Posh will be more aggressive at the back when pressing, so Butler more likely to press so beating the first line on the right hand side can create us space.
